Some pitchers are off to a strong start this year and everyone knows it (think the guy from the Rangers). Others are pitching well but people seem to be rather oblivious (a youngster in Miami and an veteran in his first season with the Royals come to mind). I’ll touch on that duo, as well as a few other arms that may, just may, be able to help you out even though you might not be looking their way right now.
Yu Darvish has made 11 starts this season and only once has he failed to last six innings. He has allowed four earned runs three times, but he’s also tossed three games of zero earned runs allowed and another with one run allowed. All told he’s the owner of a solid 3.03 ERA, nearly a run lower than his 3.90 mark from last season. Darvish has also done a great job dropping his walk rate by a batter an a half per nine whittling it down to 2.66 this season leading to an impressive 0.96 WHIP. The biggest excitement factor though in the fantasy game is his massive K-rate. After posting an elite 10.40 per nine last season, he’s upped that rate to 12.71 this year. Some background. In a season of at least 162 innings pitched that mark has only been bettered twice, ever: Randy Johnson at 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez at 13.20 in 1999. This talk of Darvish getting 300 Ks this year seems foolish. Can he maintain the third best K/9 pace ever? Even if he does and he throws 210 innings, which would be 20 more than last year, we’re still talking 267 Ks. He’s been elite, and should continue to be even so if he falls well short of 300 punchouts.
Jose Fernandez was born in 1992 and can’t legally drink yet. Given that fact, why is it that I get questions every single day about whether folks should hold on to or bail on the young righty of the Marlins? He’s not going to win many games on a putrid Marlins club (he’s 2-3), I will grant you that, but what’s wrong with his effort this year? Nothing if you ask me. The rookie with 52.1 innings of big league experience has 52 Ks, and that’s impressive no matter who you are. His walk rate of 3.61 per nine is slightly up, but who wouldn’t take that 2.48 K/BB ratio from a rookie? He’s also allowing 1.03 homers per nine, a big league average type number, and the same can be said about his 1.33 GB/FB ratio that is actually slightly above the average. To compare, Justin Verlander has a 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP an a 1.41 GB/FB.
Aaron Harang has a 6.51 ERA a 1.34 WHIP, an a 2-5 record. Ugly, right? Still, the guy has been really good in three of his last four outings. He did get bombed and allowed seven runs while getting just 11 outs on May 21st, but in the other three outings he went at least six innings each time while allowing a total of four runs. This is one of those instances in which the outward appearance of the numbers may not be indicative of what is actually going on. (1) Harang has an 8.44 K/9 mark, and that would be the second best mark of his career, not to mention that it’s a really impressive mark. (2) He’s walking 1.69 batters per nine innings, an elite mark. It’s not likely he’ll keep it up given that it’s a batter below his career mark, but it clearly shows he’s pitched better than the ERA would suggest. (3) His 5.00 K/BB ratio is elite. (4) Whenever he makes a mistake it’s being taken deep. The last two years Harang has a 1.75 HR/9 mark, the total if you add together each seasons mark (1.05 and 0.70). This season that mark is 1.93. Come on, really? There’s no way that continues. In fact, his xFIP this season is 4.05 which is actually lower than his 4.14 career mark. He’s risky cause he’s getting bombed when he’s “off,” but he’s well worth a shot in AL-only leagues if you ask me.
David Price‘s arm is fine according to everyone with the Rays. Sure his triceps is sore, but it’s all good structurally. Still, he’s likely going to miss at least another two weeks. I get the Rays taking things slow with him, makes all the sense in the world, but it also would have been nice if the club had been honest about the situation with Price and the fact that he was going to miss a month when he was first hurt (so much for the line that they sold saying he’d be back in two weeks). Jake Odorizzi figures to hold down the rotation spot until Price is ready to return, though he hasn’t exactly torn it up in two starts (9.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP). Jake has allowed 13 hits in nine innings but he’s also struck out eight batters while walking only two. He’s an AL-only option who might have a spot in deep mixed leagues if you’re willing to take a risk on the unproven talent that is borderline special.
Just cause… Nicole Scherzinger.
Tyler Skaggs figures to be sent back down to the minors even though he threw six scoreless innings Monday against the Rangers. Through seven big league starts, he made six appearances last season, he’s averaging 7.64 K’s per nine with a passable 1.39 WHIP. Those numbers don’t begin to describe what should be expected from him though when he gets a rollin’. Skaggs may not be a supremely elite talent, but he does a lot of things very well even if his performance at Triple-A doesn’t speak to that fact this season (in nine starts he has a 5.23 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, though he did strike out 22 with only three walks over his last 20.1 innings). Skaggs figures to be demoted and not make another start for now, he was called up to start a game in the doubleheader Monday, but he figures to be a strong NL-only option when the D’backs eventually decide he’s ready to take over a rotation spot on a consistent bases.
James Shields was a huge addition on the hill for the Royals. He’s 2-6 so he’s just not gotten it done, right? Not so fast. You know not to judge a guy by his record. Like I noted with Fernandez, this is a case of a pitcher not being rewarded for his good work. Here’s what you should know with Shields.
(1) He’s got a strong 2.96 ERA.
(2) His WHIP is a strong 1.06.
(3) He’s K/9 rate is 8.32. That’s, what do you know, a strong rate.
(4) His 2.28 BB/9 rate is only slightly above his 2.11 career mark.
(5) That leaves him with a K/BB ratio of 3.65 just off his 3.68 carer mark.
(6) His 1.25 GB/FB career ratio is 1.27 this season.
Yep, you guessed it — Shields has been good as always, record be damned. Shields has gone at least seven innings in six of his last seven starts while allowing two of fewer earned runs five times. His record in that time is 1-4. The Royals are getting exactly what they paid for. Now they have to give him some offensive support.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT. For more of Ray’s analysis you can check out BaseballGuys.com or the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account where he tirelessly answer everyone’s questions.
